The 13 Keys to Reelection
Hello everyone, my name is Blue, and I began this blog to talk about the 2024 elections and analyze results. In this post, I will lay out the case for Joe Biden, and why I think he’s still favored to win, contrary to popular belief and the polls. At the top is my prediction for the presidential election; I believe as of now, we are headed not just for a rematch, but for a repeat map from 2020. Stay tuned for Senate and House predictions, and explanations for each swing state!
To start, let’s go back to 2016; the polls and fundraising numbers were strongly in favor of Clinton. Then Donald Trump rode down that escalator, said he’ll build a wall, smashed a blue one instead, and the pundits were left to search for answers. Everyone, from Larry Sabato to Nate Silver to all the biggest networks in the country, was embarrassed in a way we hadn’t seen since 1948 (more on this election soon!).
Enter Alan Lichtman, a historian at American University. He had gotten the result right, despite ignoring everything mainstream pundits had spent the better part of a year obsessing over (or perhaps because he ignored it). What’s more impressive is he’d gotten the result right every election correct since 1980 (save for 2000, whose results were…controversial). How had he done this seemingly magical feat? By analyzing historical trends from elections from 1860 onwards, Lichtman has developed 13 “keys,” or true-false statements. If 8 or more are true, the incumbent party wins; if 7 or less are true, the opposing party wins. Here is my view of how the 13 Keys line up with 2024 (as of February):
The 13 Keys
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- FALSE: While Democrats did well in 2022, they ultimately lost 9 seats that cycle and 14 in the previous cycle. In 2018, they held 235 seats, while today, they hold 212 seats.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- TRUE: Joe Biden leads primary polls by over 60%, and won by over 40 as a write-in candidate in New Hampshire, as well as almost 90% in Nevada and 96% in South Carolina.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- TRUE: Joe Biden is a Democrat and the current US president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- LEAN FALSE: RFK Jr. is currently polling extremely well, but I suspect his campaign will start to fail as it’s outfunded by Trump and Biden, and once the national spotlight is on him, where his…interesting views and conspiracy theories will be revealed to most of the public who still doesn’t know of them.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- TRUE: the US real GDP has been increasing since Q3 of 2020, so by definition, we are not in a recession regardless of how bad people think the economy is. This can, however, change before the election
- Long-term economy: Real economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- TRUE
- Biden 1st term real GDP growth: 2.67% per year (8.01% total)
- Trump 1st term real GDP growth: 1.71% per year (6.84% total)
- Obama 2nd term real GDP growth: 2.32% per year (9.29% total)
- Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
- TRUE
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- TRUE: Despite intense partisan gridlock, the Biden administration has passed several important bills on key issues, such as the American Rescue Plan, the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the Respect for Marriage Act, and far more.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- TRUE: Unlike in the summer of 2020, there hasn’t been any major social unrest during Biden’s term, though Gaza might change this.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- TRUE: While Biden is unpopular, he’s mainly unpopular due to his advanced age, not for any major scandals. The Hunter Biden and classified documents “scandals” both are really only considered scandals by the most partisan Republicans, and there’s very little evidence backing both.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- FALSE: The Afghanistan pullout was an absolute disaster; just 38% of Americans approved of Biden’s approach to the war in Afghanistan, while 51% disapproved.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- FALSE: This one is false for now, but if Israel or Ukraine have a major breakthrough it could flip to true
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- FALSE: Joe Biden is extremely unpopular with an approval rating just under 40% and a disapproval rating of 56%.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
- TRUE: Donald Trump is also extremely unpopular with a favorability rating of 43% and an unfavorability rating of 52%.
As it stands right now, 8 keys are true, 4 are false, and 1 leans false. This suggests Biden will win reelection. Lichtman can of course be wrong, but based off his methodology, Biden wins. In the upcoming months, I can see the following keys change:
Key 4: LEAN FALSE → TRUE; if RFK Jr’s campaign implodes like DeSantis’ did. I actually think this is likely, but for now he’s polling well.
Key 5: TRUE → FALSE; if the economy goes into recession before June (end of 2024 Q2), this key flips, but even if the real GDP declines in Q3 of 2024, since a recession is defined as 2 quarters of GDP decline, this one will still remain TRUE.
Key 8: TRUE → FALSE; The Israel-Hamas war is the most likely cause of social unrest to spring up right now, but honestly, anything can happen; at this stage in 2020, COVID was a minor threat, and BLM was not nearly as big as it would be in the summer
Key 11: FALSE → TRUE; A major victory for Israel or Ukraine would give a pretty big boost to the Biden administration, and there is still ample time for either.
In the worst case for Biden, the US enters a recession, RFK Jr. continues to poll well, social unrest breaks out, and the Israel and Ukraine wars do not resolve. In this case, only 6 keys are true, meaning Biden loses reelection. Biden loses reelection if there’s a recession or social unrest, but if RFK Jr’s campaign fizzles out or Israel/Ukraine wars resolve, both a recession and social unrest are necessary. If RFK Jr’s campaign fizzles out AND the Israel/Ukraine wars resolve, Biden is basically guaranteed to win reelection even with a recession and/or social unrest. Biden’s best case scenario is one where the economy continues to grow, RFK Jr’s campaign fizzles out, there’s no major social unrest, and Israel and/or Ukraine win the war. This would leave him at 10 keys, a solid position to be in and almost guaranteed re-election
While anything can happen, as of now, despite the polling and approval ratings, Biden appears on track
to win re-election, though this can change in the upcoming months. Please note this is just my take on the elections, it is by no means me saying "Joe Biden will 100% win." If you don't agree with my points, please say why in the comments! Additionally, to get a different perspective, you might wanna check out my friend Constitution Enjoyer's post on why he thinks Donald Trump is currently favored.
